Is There Another Housing Bubble In The Coming Weeks And Months

Is There Another Housing Bubble In The Coming Weeks And Months?

Is There Another Housing Bubble In The Coming Weeks And Months?

The housing market has been booming since 2013. Home prices have been skyrocketing year after year. Many analysts and economists have been anticipating a housing market correction. However, the housing market has been booming with no signs of any correction. In general, the right-hand rule in basic economics 101 is what goes up normally comes down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearing 30,000 prior to the coronavirus outbreak in February 2020. However, the Dow drops to 18,000 due to the pandemic. Today, one year after the COVID-19 pandemic broke in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 34,000. However, the housing market has not experienced any correction. Actually, it is the exact opposite and is booming more than ever. Many home buyers waiting on the sidelines have seen home prices skyrocket where many can no longer afford homes at this price range. The billion-dollar question is will there be another housing bubble in the near future?

Many Homeowners Are Afraid Of Large Housing Market Correction

Home prices have been just going up, and does not even want to make a slight correction. Never in history have the seller housing market been so strong. Most home sellers are selling homes at a premium over the list price. Is selling homes over the list price the new norm? The housing market forecast remains strong. Coupled with historic low mortgage rates, the exodus of city dwellers moving to the suburbs and rural areas, and companies offer remote job opportunities to their employees, the home purchase market is expected to remain strong for years to come.

Is There Another Housing Bubble Crash: Mortgage Agencies Cautious

Mortgage agencies such as HUD, VA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac have lowered their loan to value on cash-out refinances. The Veterans Administration (VA) has lower its cash-out loan to value from 100% to 90% LTV. HUD has lower their 85% cash-out loan to value to 80% LTV. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have tightened their credit and DTI standards due to skyrocketing home values. All of these mortgage agencies are afraid of another housing crisis and/or a major housing market correction. In this article, we will discuss and cover whether we will have another housing bubble in the coming weeks and months.

Is There Another Housing Bubble Crash In The Near Future?

Home prices are skyrocketing year after year. This is a national crisis. Many homebuyers are being priced out from buying a home. Home prices are outpacing the national median income. Many homebuyers are being priced out of the housing market. Many would-be homebuyers are hoping for a market correction. Many experts and economists are predicting another housing bubble, worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Despite the coronavirus pandemic and high unemployment, the nation is seeing a major housing shortage. There is more demand for homes than inventory. This is coast to coast and not just limited to a certain region. Home prices are skyrocketing in all 50 states. More so in lower-taxed states with affordable housing than far-left liberal states with high taxes and high home prices.

States With Large Price Increases

Home prices are skyrocketing in all 50 states. However, Idaho leads the nation with the highest increase in home prices.

Look at the graph below:

Idaho leads in home price increase

Housing Market Forecast 

Housing inventory is at a historic low. This holds true even with the economic uncertainty with the coronavirus pandemic, a new President, and the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and Senate. Political unrest and talks of President Joe Biden and Democrats cheating in the 2020 election have no impact on the strong housing market. There is a new norm in the housing market. Multiple offers and buyers offering over-the-list prices on homes are becoming the norm. Homebuilders are thriving with homes selling even breaking ground is becoming the new norm. Real estate investors buying flips are thriving. Many lenders have hundreds of clients with solid pre-approvals who are having an issue originating and closing loans because their homebuyers cannot find homes at list prices.

Dale Elenteny of Gustan Cho Associates is a housing and lending expert. Dale said the following:

Talk of a housing bubble is now common among analysts – including those at Swiss banking giant UBS, who back up their claims with charts showing how home prices are outstripping both wages and rents. While home prices have appreciated more than 60% since November 2012, incomes have only appreciated by 20% and rents by 30% over the same time period. The upshot: Homes are out of reach for more and more buyers every year, the analysts argue.

Homebuyers Are Being Priced Out Of The Housing Market

Homebuyers are getting priced out of the market where their wages cannot keep up with the new housing prices. Home prices are being outpaced and increasing faster than personal incomes.

Below are the changes in the Home Price Index and the Income Index from 1991 to 2020:

Incomes aren't keeping pace with housing prices

Rental Prices Are Lagging Rising Home Prices

Below is a graph on the changes in the Home Price Index and Rent Index from 1991 to 2020:

Rents aren't keeping up with home prices, eitherThe housing boom in recent years is not being fueled by subprime lending or easy lending. All home loans are full doc qualified traditional mortgages. Non-QM mortgages are fully vetted and income and the down payment are key when it comes to qualifying. There are asset-based lending programs. However, non-QM lenders are requiring strong down payments and all loans are credit qualified. The ability to repay is strongly adhered to by mortgage lenders. This holds true whether the lender is approving traditional and/or non-QM mortgages. Home prices are rising throughout the United States. Many areas have home values that have risen over 50% since 2013. Many home buyers and real estate investors have been waiting on the sidelines since 2013 patiently waiting for a housing bubble crash. However, there does not seem to be a correction.  The key question is whether we are in the midst of a housing bubble and if so, when will it burst. There are experts who are strongly adamant we are in the midst of another housing bubble and there will be a housing correction. A slight correction in the housing market is healthy. However, nobody has a crystal ball and we cannot predict whether this is a one off economic situation. Gustan Cho Associates will keep our viewers updated on any updates with regards to another housing bubble. STAY TUNED!!!

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